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📊 Badge Guide & Expected Value Explained
What Are The Badges?
Badges indicate the quality of each betting opportunity based on Expected Value (EV) and Return on Investment (ROI).
BEST VALUE
ROI ≥ 5% - Premium betting opportunity. These bets have strong positive expected value and are mathematically favorable. Priority recommendations.
GOOD VALUE
ROI ≥ 2% - Solid betting opportunity. Positive expected value with reasonable profit potential. Good secondary options.
BEST ODDS
Highest odds available - This bookmaker offers the best price for this bet among all options. EV is neutral or slightly positive. Useful for line shopping.
No badge - ROI is below 2% or negative. Not recommended unless you have specific reasons.
What Is Expected Value (EV)?
EV represents the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet over the long run. It's calculated as:
EV = (Probability × Stake × Odds) - Stake
What Is ROI?
ROI (Return on Investment) is your expected profit as a percentage of your bet:
ROI = (EV / Stake) × 100%
Example
- Bet: Team A to win
- Probability: 55% (from AI prediction)
- Odds: 2.10
- Stake: $10
- EV: (0.55 × $10 × 2.10) - $10 = $1.55
- ROI: ($1.55 / $10) × 100 = 15.5%
- Badge: BEST VALUE (ROI ≥ 5%)
How To Use "Show Best Value Only"
This button filters to show:
- ✅ Only one bet per outcome (highest EV bookmaker)
- ✅ Only bets with ROI ≥ 2% minimum
- ✅ Clean, focused list of genuine value opportunities
Important Notes
- 🎯 EV is theoretical - based on AI probability predictions which may not be 100% accurate
- 📊 Positive EV doesn't guarantee profit on individual bets - it's a long-term average
- ⚠️ Always bet responsibly - only wager what you can afford to lose
- 📈 Higher ROI = Better value - but also verify the probability makes sense
Color Coding in EV Column
- Green - Excellent EV (ROI ≥ 5%)
- Yellow - Good EV (ROI ≥ 2%)
- Blue - Fair EV (ROI > 0%)
- No color - Negative or neutral EV